With the rise of AI, HBM has become a battleground for industry giants. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, among other memory giants, have all regarded HBM as one of their key production products.
The surge in HBM has caused significant waves in the market.
According to TrendForce data forecasts, the annual growth rate of HBM demand is nearly 200% by 2024, and it is expected to double again by 2025. SK Hynix and Micron have publicly stated that their HBM for 2024 has already been sold out, and even the 2025 HBM production is almost fully booked.
Behind the supply and demand relationship where demand exceeds supply, HBM suppliers are making a fortune. Even in the face of several quarters of continuous downturn in the storage market in previous years, the HBM business still performed brilliantly, becoming the key to driving the demand increase of storage manufacturers.
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At present, the HBM market is divided into three parts. Data statistics show that SK Hynix accounts for more than 50% of the market share, Samsung accounts for about 40%, and Micron's market share may be less than 10%. If looking at the current mainstream product, HBM3, SK Hynix's market share in the HBM3 market exceeds 90%, with Samsung and Micron closely following.
However, in addition to the three giants, HBM brings incremental demand to the equipment market. For front-end equipment, HBM needs to be vertically connected through TSV, which will drive incremental demand for etching equipment, PECVD, PVD, ECD, and thinning and polishing front-end equipment, but relatively limited.
In the back-end process, due to the increase in the stacking structure of HBM, the requirement for the thickness of the wafer to be continuously reduced, the demand for thinning, bonding and other equipment has increased significantly, and the back-end packaging and testing equipment has the logic of both quantity and price rising.
Among them, the TC Bonder (Thermo-compression Bonder) is an essential equipment for the HBM manufacturing process.
The TC bonding machine is crucial for HBM production. It uses thermo-compression to bond and stack chips on the processed wafer, which has a significant impact on the yield of HBM. Therefore, the TC bonding machine is considered one of the indispensable equipment in the HBM manufacturing process and is also one of the segments that benefit more from the HBM wave.
According to QY Research data, the global market size of high-precision TC bonder equipment for advanced packaging in 2022 reached 80 million US dollars, and it is expected to reach 400 million US dollars by 2029, with a CAGR of up to 25.6% from 2023 to 2029.Under the Surge of HBM, the Rise of TC Bonding Machines
It can be observed that with the commercialization of HBM and 3D packaging, the market for TC bonding machines is rapidly expanding.
To cope with market growth, Korean equipment companies such as Hanmi Semiconductor and Samsung's SEMES have successfully achieved domestic production of TC bonding machines for HBM. However, there is still a high dependency on TC bonding machines from overseas equipment companies. For instance, companies like Japan's Shinko, Toray, Singapore's Kulicke & Soffa and ASMPT, and the Netherlands' BESI are also strong players in the TC bonding machine market.
It is understood that HBM manufacturers have essentially established their own TC bonding machine supply chains. Samsung Electronics sources supplies from Japan's Toray, Shinko, and its subsidiary SEMES; SK Hynix is receiving TC bonding equipment for HBM from Singapore's ASMPT, Hanmi Semiconductor, and Hanwha Precision Machinery. Both companies have been accelerating localization efforts since last year to reduce dependence on foreign equipment.
Micron is navigating among Japanese and Korean equipment manufacturers, eager to catch up with HBM production capacity.
Under the joint efforts of the three giants in the memory industry, TC bonding equipment for HBM has ushered in new growth opportunities.
Hanmi Semiconductor, Leading the TCB Market
Hanmi Semiconductor was established in 1980, initially producing chip carrier molds and packaging injection molding equipment for plastic encapsulation. In 2017, it began joint research and development with SK Hynix on the Dual TC Bonder for HBM packaging and 2.5D packaging.
In 2017, Hanmi Semiconductor co-developed the TC bonding machine with SK Hynix to provide equipment for SK Hynix's MR-MUF process, which uses adhesive-like materials to bond DRAM chips.
In 2023, the company released a new generation of Dual TC Bonder, the super model GRIFFIN and the advanced model DRAGON. Both are dual-station bonding equipment for semiconductor chip stacking on wafers using the TSV method, suitable for the two main solutions for current HBM TC, TC+NCF and TC+MUF. The concurrently launched TC Bonder CW2.0 is suitable for TSMC's CoWoS process and is actively being developed at customer sites.Since 2022, Hanmi Semiconductor's TCB equipment has been leading the market.
The capital market is a good signal. Since the end of 2022, South Korea's "demon stock" Hanmi Semiconductor has soared by nearly 1200%, and the crazy rise has attracted many investors to rush in. This year, Hanmi Semiconductor's stock price has doubled again, becoming the best performing stock in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.
It is understood that Hanmi Semiconductor has five factories worldwide, which can achieve in-depth coverage of customers, and the company has 170 CNC automated equipment. By building a vertical integrated production method of design, component processing, input software, assembly, and testing, it can accelerate delivery, shorten delivery time, and improve efficiency.
In terms of supply, Hanmi Semiconductor is deeply bound to SK Hynix. The expansion of SK Hynix's HBM production drives the demand for its TC bonding equipment.
It is reported that SK Hynix plans to build a new HBM production line in the Cheongju factory, which will fully operate next year, and its HBM production capacity is expected to expand at least twice, consolidating its leading position in the HBM market. Among them, Hanmi Semiconductor is listed as one of the main suppliers of production line equipment, receiving a large number of orders from SK Hynix; this year, SK Hynix's Cheongju factory also plans to build a new wafer factory (M15X) near the existing wafer factory, which is expected to be completed in 2025, facilitating the expansion of production capacity in the future. It is possible to build the 6th generation HBM (HBM4) production line in Cheongju, aiming to achieve mass production in 2026. Therefore, the continuous iteration of Hanmi Semiconductor equipment can benefit deeply from Hynix's HBM4 production line in the future.
To cope with the demand of the HBM market, Hanmi Semiconductor's TC Bonder plans to expand production again to enhance supply capacity. It is reported that Hanmi Semiconductor's new factory is located in Incheon City, using the third of the five factories it already has. The factory covers an area of more than 20,000 square meters, originally used for the assembly and testing of the company's equipment, and has now been transformed into a factory specializing in the production of dual TC bonding machines and other TC bonding machines. The factory has a large clean room, which can assemble and test about 50 semiconductor devices at the same time, providing an optimized environment for the production of Dual TC Bonder.
With the opening of the new factory, it is expected to meet the growing demand for dual TC bonding machine equipment in the market, ensuring the stable supply of key components under the background of surging HBM demand.
In June of this year, SK Hynix and Hanmi Semiconductor signed a TC bonding equipment supply contract worth 150 billion won, and the cumulative amount of HBM TC bonding machine orders obtained from SK Hynix has reached 358.7 billion won. The price of a TC bonding machine is about 2 billion won.
In addition, in April this year, Micron also provided Hanmi Semiconductor with a TC Bonder purchase order worth 22.6 billion won. This move not only strengthened the cooperation between the two parties but also reflected Micron's high attention to the stability and reliability of the supply chain. Through cooperation with Hanmi Semiconductor, Micron will be able to better cope with changes in market demand and ensure the stable supply of HBM3E products.
While significantly expanding its semiconductor backend process equipment portfolio, Hanmi Semiconductor also plans to launch "hybrid bonding" equipment in 2026.Hanmi Semiconductor has currently received orders for HBM bonding equipment from SK Hynix and Micron, with expectations that more customer orders will be added in the future. Hanmi Semiconductor's CEO, Kwak Dong-shin, stated: "We have already raised our sales target for this year to 65 billion won, next year to 120 billion won, and by 2026 to 200 billion won."
Analysts predict that due to the increasing demand for TC bonding machines and the expansion of production capacity, Hanmi Semiconductor's production capacity will increase from 22 units per month this year to 35 units per month next year.
SEMES: TC Bonding Machine Revenue to Increase by 2.5 Times
It is reported that SEMES, a subsidiary of Samsung Electronics, has delivered nearly a hundred TC bonding machines to Samsung within a year.
SEMES produces TC bonding machines optimized for the TC-NCF process and supplies them to Samsung. This process involves laying a thin film material each time chips are stacked.
Although Hanmi Semiconductor currently has a technological advantage, SEMES is quickly closing the gap. The achievements in TCB technology and process yield have enabled SEMES to ship 100 TC bonding equipment within a year. They are also actively developing hybrid bonding (Hybrid Bonding) equipment.
In April of this year, Samsung successfully manufactured an HBM 16H sample using a hybrid bonding machine from its subsidiary SEMES and verified its normal operation.
According to the South Korean media outlet Deal Site, the synergistic effect of SEMES' technological breakthrough and Samsung's performance improvement is expected to significantly enhance, with Samsung's HBM production expected to increase substantially, which is expected to bring a large number of equipment orders to SEMES, drive revenue growth, and form a virtuous cycle of technology investment.
In 2021, Samsung's strong performance propelled SEMES to become the first semiconductor equipment company in Korea to exceed 30 trillion won in revenue. Samsung plans to triple its HBM production capacity in 2024 compared to 2023, which is undoubtedly a major benefit for SEMES.
SEMES aims to achieve TC bonding machine sales of over 25 billion won in 2024, about 2.5 times that of 2023.As several memory chip manufacturers, including Samsung, increase the production capacity of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and iterate on HBM products, it is expected that SEMES Company's overall revenue from Through-Chip Interconnect (TCB) equipment will rise. However, Samsung still largely relies on equipment from Japanese companies such as Toray and Shinkawa. If SEMES wants to improve its performance, it needs to further strengthen equipment investment and diversify development.
Hanwha Precision Machinery: Breaking into SK Hynix's supply chain
As the main TCB manufacturer for SK Hynix in the development of HBM, Hanmi Semiconductor, which has always shared weal and woe with SK Hynix, faces competition with Hanwha Precision Machinery and ASMP in the next generation of TCB equipment.
According to South Korean media reports, SK Hynix will purchase more than 30 TC bonding machines capable of heated reflow for 12-layer fifth-generation HBM (HBM3E) in the second half of 2024.
However, Hanmi Semiconductor's latest fourth-generation equipment, "Dual TC Bonder Tiger," has not yet fully implemented the demo of high-mobility ruthenium (hMR) at SK Hynix and cannot perform the heated quality reflow process. The company is improving the equipment's performance and has been evaluated as needing to improve production efficiency. Although ASMPT's hMR process quality is better than Hanmi Semiconductor in terms of evaluation, some say that ASMPT's equipment is larger in size, and ASMPT is also improving the equipment according to SK Hynix's requirements.
However, the test results of Hanwha Precision Machinery's TCB equipment samples are better than Hanmi Semiconductor's. Hanwha Precision Machinery signed an agreement with SK Hynix on June 10 to supply two TC bonding machines to SK Hynix. The equipment was jointly developed by both parties and has recently passed external quality tests. Hanwha's two devices are for evaluation and have not yet been put into production. SK Hynix plans to evaluate its production line equipped with bonding machines before the end of July. If the bonding machine passes the production line evaluation, SK Hynix is expected to order in bulk in the second half of this year.
It is reported that Hanwha Precision Machinery is adding assembly equipment at its Changwon factory in South Korea to digest related equipment orders.
What has attracted attention is that this is the first time Hanwha Precision Machinery has supplied TCB equipment to SK Hynix's HBM production line. Industry insiders point out that SK Hynix's manufacturing department has been involved since the stage of Hanwha Precision Machinery's manufacturing equipment. If Hanwha Precision Machinery fails to pass SK Hynix's test, SK Hynix's TCB equipment will still move towards a dual-track and tripartite situation.
ASMPT partners with Micron, aiming for TC bonding machines
ASMPT is also one of the suppliers of TC bonding machines used in HBM.Today, ASMPT and Micron Technology announced a significant collaboration, with ASMPT supplying Micron with a dedicated TC bonding machine specifically for HBM production. The two parties will work together to develop the next generation of bonding technologies to support the production of HBM4.
This partnership signifies that ASMPT's leading position in the field of semiconductor backend manufacturing equipment has been further consolidated, while also demonstrating Micron's continuous pursuit and investment in cutting-edge memory technology.
As a leader in the memory industry, Micron has always been committed to driving innovation and development in memory technology. In addition to the collaboration with ASMPT, Micron has also purchased TC bonding machines from Japan's Shinko Semiconductor and Hanmi Semiconductor for the production of the current HBM3E products.
Benefiting from the rapid development of artificial intelligence, advanced packaging equipment has become the main growth driver for ASMPT. The company's thermo-compression bonding (TCB) equipment and hybrid bonding (HB) equipment can be widely used in the 2.5D/3D packaging of AI accelerator cards and the 3D stacking packaging of HBM.
As of the 24Q1 quarterly report, ASMPT's TCB products have been applied to the top wafer foundry C2S and C2W processes, and have been introduced to top HBM manufacturers for 12-layer HBM stacking. The HB equipment also received two orders for 3D packaging in 2023 and is developing the next generation of HB products with customers.
Japanese equipment manufacturers compete for TC bonding machines
As is well known, in addition to ASMPT, Micron has been using TC bonding machines from Japan's Shinko and Toray, both of which are traditional participants in the TC bonding machine industry.
In addition, according to a report by South Korean media outlet TheElec in December last year, Samsung has ordered 16 2.5D bonding machines from Japan's Shinko company. The report cites sources as saying that Samsung has currently received seven machines and may apply for the remaining equipment when needed. This is likely to provide HBM3 and 2.5D packaging services for NVIDIA's next-generation AI chips.
However, according to sources, due to Shinko Semiconductor's supply of TC bonding machines to its largest customer, Samsung Electronics, it has been unable to meet Micron's needs in a timely manner. Compared with its main competitors in South Korea, Micron has always been criticized for insufficient production capacity.
Therefore, Micron decided to add Hanmi Semiconductor as a second supplier, hoping to accelerate the expansion of HBM production capacity through transactions with more equipment manufacturers.In addition, the Dutch company BESI is actively developing TC bonding equipment, and a series of equipment link manufacturers are actively deploying to meet the market's demand for high-performance memory packaging technology.
Hybrid bonding technology brings new momentum to the equipment.
At present, the main solutions for implementing multi-layer DRAM interconnection in HBM are TC-NCF and MR-MUF.
In the TC+NCF process, a non-conductive film is first used to fill the gaps between the micro-bumps on the side of the DRAM die micro-bumps, and then a thermal compression bonding process is used to connect the two layers of dies. Samsung and Micron mainly use this solution; TC+MR MUF, batch reflow molding bottom filling is SK Hynix's high-end packaging process, which uses a substance called liquid epoxy resin molding to fill and bond between chips when stacking, by attaching the chip on the circuit.
TC-NCF and MR-MUF each have their advantages and disadvantages. Compared with reflow soldering, thermal compression soldering can more effectively control chip warpage, etc., but since MR-MUF is a one-time completion of the electrical connection between the bumps and the mechanical connection between the chips, TC-NCF needs to perform electrical and mechanical connections at each layer of stacking. Compared with NCF, MUF can effectively improve the thermal conductivity and improve process speed and yield.
Due to the increasing demand for HBM products in the market, it is expected that 12-16 layers or even higher multi-chip stacking technology will be needed in the future. To achieve this goal, it is necessary not only to reduce the thickness of the chip and the size of the bump electrode but also to remove the filler between the chips. In this regard, hybrid bonding technology can greatly reduce the size of the electrodes, thereby increasing the number of I/Os per unit area, and thus greatly reducing power consumption.
At the same time, the hybrid bonding method can significantly reduce the gap between chips, thereby achieving high-capacity packaging. In addition, it can also improve the heat dissipation performance of the chip, reduce the thickness of the chip, and effectively solve the heat dissipation problem caused by increased power consumption.
Hybrid bonding has become the next generation of bonding technology for large manufacturers, which can be divided into W2W and D2W. The former has a higher degree of commercialization due to the advantages of high production efficiency, while the latter has only one application scenario of a chip from AMD so far, which can reduce waste.
Samsung Electronics published a Korean paper at the IEEE International Conference in 2024, detailing the major breakthroughs it has achieved in the field of HBM. The paper clearly pointed out that in order to achieve 16 layers or more of HBM memory stacking, hybrid bonding technology must be adopted, and this innovative technology will lead a new trend in the field of memory packaging. Samsung plans to manufacture HBM4 samples in 2025, which will adopt a 16-layer stacking design, and is expected to achieve mass production in 2026.
On the other hand, SK Hynix also plans to adopt hybrid bonding in its HBM production in 2026. At present, the semiconductor packaging company Genesem has provided two next-generation hybrid bonding equipment installed in SK Hynix's pilot factory for testing hybrid bonding processes. Hybrid bonding eliminates the use of bumps and copper pillars between copper pads and directly bonds the pads, which means that chip manufacturers can stack more chips and increase bandwidth.It is foreseeable that if the hybrid bonding technology is applied to HBM in the future, the market size of hybrid bonding equipment will expand significantly. Equipment companies are also actively deploying hybrid bonding technology in cooperation with HBM suppliers such as Samsung and SK Hynix to reduce the risk of product substitution caused by changes in technology paths.
In conclusion, the principle of the gold rush in the 19th century has been proven once again: sometimes, selling shovels is more profitable than digging for gold.
In the gold rush, shovels were indispensable production tools. Regardless of whether you found gold or not, the more intense the gold rush, the more shovels were sold.
Corresponding to the current era, in the case of the popular Bitcoin a few years ago, miners may not necessarily make money, but those who sell mining machines have definitely made a fortune; new forces in car manufacturing have not yet made a profit, but CATL's market value has already broken through a trillion; domestic automotive chips have not yet emerged, and automotive certification organizations have already made a lot of money... There are many such examples.
Now, with the rise of the AI boom, technology giants are pouring in at all costs, and the terminal large models are in a "hundred regiments war," and it is difficult to distinguish the winner for a while. However, upstream computing power represented by NVIDIA and AMD as the "shovel sellers" have already benefited from the AI wave first.
In this way, TC bonding equipment has also become an "unexpected winner" in the HBM era.
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